Water-Energy-Land Impacts of Compound Weather Events
In the face of climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, with multiple events often occurring simultaneously or in close succession. These compound events can lead to greater, less predictable impacts across various sectors, making them difficult to manage.
For example, a combination of heavy rain and storm surges exacerbates coastal flooding when excess rainwater can’t drain, while ‘hot droughts’ (heatwaves paired with droughts) and wildfire-prone conditions illustrate how compounded risks extend across regions, infrastructure, and economies. With this project the interdisciplinary team seeks to capture the complexity of these events across sectors and incorporate local adaptive capacities.
Challenge
Currently, the definition and approach to understanding compound events are limited, particularly in three areas (which we identified in the Incubator phase of this project):
- Sectoral interdependencies - Compound events often affect multiple sectors at once, such as agriculture, energy, and water. The 2018 European "hot drought" exemplifies this, intensifying competition for water across various uses.
- Non-extreme, co-occurring events - Even moderate events, when they occur together, can result in significant damage, as seen in the Netherlands in 2023, when rainfall and moderate winds forced the closure of critical storm barriers.
- Vulnerability and adaptability - Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are determined not only by environmental risks but also by social and economic factors, which shape how communities are impacted and can respond.
Holistic approach
Our project 'Water-Energy-Land impacts of COMpound weather Events (WELCOME)' aims to adopt a holistic approach to analyze compound events in the water-energy-land nexus by developing an impact-based methodology. Through partnerships with stakeholders, we aim to support evidence-informed decision-making, enhance public preparedness, and foster resilient adaptation planning.
The teams approach integrates methods from various fields to identify and analyze compound weather events, focusing on the Netherlands as a case study due to its vulnerability to climate change and availability of rich, cross-sectoral data. We will transition from an interdisciplinary to a transdisciplinary approach by incorporating insights from stakeholders across different sectors. This process will include participatory workshops, interviews, and public engagement through interactive educational sessions.
Framework
The team aims to create a framework to identify compound weather events and their impacts on interconnected sectors. Using historical data, such as the 2021 summer floods and recent ‘dark doldrums’(calm and dark weather that triggers renewable energy shortfalls), we will refine our understanding of these events. This framework will be developed through three phases: critical assessment of existing methodologies, development and refinement of a tailored approach, and incorporation of multidisciplinary expertise and stakeholder feedback.
Serious game
By working closely with stakeholders the goal is to explore societal implications through a combination of interviews and participatory workshops. The creation of an educational serious game will help stakeholders and the public understand compound events, fostering improved decision-making and preparedness.
The game, which will be co-developed with stakeholders and integrated into educational settings and public exhibits, will serve as both an educational tool and a data-gathering platform for exploring adaptive strategies.
Expected outcomes
This project will produce an impact-based framework for analyzing compound weather events, focusing on the interconnected water-energy-land nexus. The team aims to expand the current understanding of compound events and generate actionable insights that can be extended globally in future projects. Additionally, the project will create an interactive serious game, designed in collaboration with stakeholders, to educate players and gather insights on adaptive strategies. The game will be used in workshops, academic courses, and museum exhibitions, serving as both an educational tool and a means to gather mixed-method data on societal responses to compound weather events.
Through targeted workshops, the team will conduct a stakeholder analysis, begin game development, and test the game in academic, public, and policy settings. The project will conclude with a dissemination workshop to share final results with stakeholders, the public, and other potential end-users, setting the stage for follow-up projects and further outreach.
Team
dr. Anna Duden
Geosciences - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Energy & Resourcesdr. Arie Staal
Geosciences - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Environmental Sciencesdr. Despoina Georgiou
Social and Behavioural Sciences - Education and Pedagogy - Educationdr. Gerbrand Koren
Geosciences - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Environmental Sciencesdr. Jing Hu
Geosciences - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Environmental Sciencesprof. dr. ir. C.W. (Kees) Oosterlee
Science - Mathematics - Mathematical Institute - Mathematical ModelingScience - Mathematicsdr. ir. T.H.J. (Tim) Hermans
Science - Physics - Marine and Atmospheric Research - Marine & Atmospheric Res
Non-UU partners
- , Chair Professor of Energy System Integration, Section of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft
- , Associate Researcher, ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ of Hamburg
- , Sustainability Economist, Rabobank/RaboResearch
- , Senior Data Scientist, Rabobank/RaboResearch
- , Physical Climate Risk Analyst, Rabobank/RaboResearch