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Global warming is not only raising temperatures but also pushing parts of Earth’s climate system toward critical thresholds, known as tipping points. Beyond these, small changes can trigger large, self-reinforcing, and potentially irreversible shifts. The systems at risk of such shifts are called tipping elements. Examples include the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major current regulating heat transport between the hemispheres. Because these systems are linked, the tipping of one can trigger others in a domino effect.

This thesis combines mathematical analysis, simplified conceptual models, and a comprehensive climate model to investigate how interactions between tipping elements shape such risks. Focusing on the AMOC and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the main finding is that, while Greenland’s meltwater destabilises the AMOC, meltwater from West Antarctica can prevent its collapse. This previously underexplored possibility emerges first in a conceptual model and is later confirmed in a comprehensive climate model. We further examine how rapid external changes and climate variability influence this stabilising effect, and demonstrate its potential relevance under high-emission scenarios.

Overall, the research highlights the importance of stabilising interactions between tipping elements, which may delay or even avert dangerous climate shifts. Though not mitigation strategies, recognizing such dynamics is essential for improving projections, informing mitigation, and guiding adaptation.