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NWO has awarded a 2 million Euros grant to the research proposal 'From Climate Change to Conflict: Mitigation through Insurance' by Karlijn Morsink. A consortium led by Morsink, assistant professor at the Utrecht ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ School of Economics (U.S.E.), will investigate to what extent regional conflicts are increased by weather shocks - and to what extent insurance combined with specific interventions aimed at reducing conflict can mitigate that effect. The research will take place in Kenya and Ethiopia.

‘Climate change and conflict are amongst the biggest threats to stability in our society. It is often feared that natural disasters increase the risks of conflict. Insurance policies for farmers and pastoralists are increasingly used to mitigate this risk, but whether they indeed have that effect has not been investigated. That is what we are going to do, and even consider and test if we need to combine insurance with specific interventions that reduce conflicts,' says Morsink.

Morsink's research programme is one of three successful applications that aims to provide new insights into the interaction between the various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The other two research projects financed by NWO will take place in various countries and focus on the possible relationship between women's empowerment and food security and the synergy and trade-offs between the individual SDGs. 

From Climate Change to Conflict: Mitigation through Insurance!?

Many studies suggest a positive causal relationship between climate change and conflict, especially in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. However, the evidence for this is contested, partly because the mechanisms are not well understood. An often-suggested hypothesis is that households affected by weather shocks - such as droughts or floods - do not have sufficient buffers to cope, and resort to strategies such as migration, theft and resource claims, which in turn can lead to social unrest and conflict.

To counter this, policymakers are increasingly promoting insurance against such weather shocks. While it has been shown that these insurances can mitigate the direct effects of shocks, their relationship to conflict has not been studied. Alternative hypotheses suggest that insurance, for example by crowding-out pre-existing traditional informal institutions to that insurance against risks, or by increasing productivity and consequent pressure on natural resources, may increase conflict.

For this study, researchers led by Karlijn Morsink will ask how and to what extent climate-related weather shocks and insurance affect regional conflicts and cooperation. Are there interventions that can be designed and tested to mitigate possible conflict-aggrevating effects of insurance? The researchers will study a successful drought insurance product that has been implemented in Ethiopia and Kenya, and for which there are plans to scale it up to the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.

The foreseen contributions of the research programme will be an understanding of the links between climate-related weather shocks, insurance, conflict and cooperation, as well as the design of carefully evaluated insurance-based interventions that mitigate conflict. This should lead to a reduction in the impact of weather shocks, vulnerability and conflict, to financial inclusion and to increased productivity. The results will ideally also contribute to reducing inequality in the distribution of wealth and income for the insured, their communities and societies.

Investing in long-term relationships

Karlijn Morsink has previously conducted research into the quality of insurance and the effect of insurance on prosperity, also in the same region. In Ethiopia, for example, she studied the relationship between insurance and informal risk-sharing in the economy. The two main themes of her research so far (on risk and insurance on the one hand, and conflict and cooperation on the other) come together in this study. Moreover, it offers her new opportunities:

'The grant also gives me the chance to further develop my research agenda, and to build up a group of young PhD students and postdocs. Through experimental research, and long-term relationships with local partners, we can develop and test innovations to address both economic and policy issues.

I have worked with most of the people in the consortium for some time. I believe that only then can you do pioneering research in my field that also has policy impact. In the fight against poverty and inequality, long-term relationships with researchers, policy-makers and other parties create depth and trust,' says Morsink. ‘As a result, local parties are also willing to cooperate. This grant is also a confirmation of our investments in these relationships over a long period of time. That is the beauty of it.’

Research team

The consortium consists of Utrecht ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ, in collaboration with Wageningen ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ; Amsterdam ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ; ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ of Nairobi, Kenya; Cornell ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ; Georgia State ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ; the Environment and Climate Research Centre, Ethiopia; the International Livestock Research Institute; the World Bank, Oromia Insurance Company, the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

More information

Please read more on the NWO website: 

Contact

Would you like to know more about this research project? Please contact Karlijn Morsink: k.morsink@uu.nl