Mapping future options for climate adaptation

Mapped and illustrated for the Mekong Delta

As the climate changes faster than ever before, societies must adapt to new and unfamiliar conditions. In Global Environmental Change, an international team of researchers led by Frances Dunn from Utrecht 木瓜福利影视 introduces a new conceptual model for climate adaptation. Their method helps anticipate how adaptation options will evolve under future climate and societal conditions, supporting proactive policy planning.

The researchers present a quantitative framework that assesses adaptation measures over time, considering physical, socio-economic, governance, and legal dimensions. A visual solution space shows how the feasibility of these measures shifts under changing conditions, revealing both opportunities and limitations, as well as potential bottlenecks.

The figure shows how the feasibility of an adaptation measure changes over time.
The figure shows how the feasibility of an adaptation measure changes over time. Each time slice is represented as a pie chart, while a sequence of slices forms a 鈥榮olution space tunnel.鈥

Adaptation in the Mekong Delta

The method is illustrated for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, focusing on three strategies to reduce coastal flood risk: mangrove restoration, dike construction, and planned retreat. As Dunn explains, mangroves are a powerful natural defence, but they may struggle to keep pace with rapid sea-level rise unless groundwater extraction is reduced and sediment supply increases. 鈥淥ur model helps reveal these kinds of constraints before they become critical,鈥 she adds. Dikes, though effective, may face financial constraints, while planned retreat emerges as a viable long-term option requiring significant financial and societal support.

Steering adaptation planning

The framework allows policymakers and stakeholders to identify potential bottlenecks before they occur and to design adaptive pathways that can switch between strategies as conditions evolve. According to Dunn, the study highlights the importance of integrating societal and biophysical factors in adaptation planning. Only through such integrated approaches can societies avoid maladaptation and build long-term resilience.

Publication

Dunn, F.E., et al. 鈥楳apping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta鈥, Global Environmental Change 95 (2025), .

The research was funded by the Water, Climate, and Future Deltas hub of Utrecht 木瓜福利影视鈥檚 Pathways to Sustainability programme.