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Surface freshwater temperatures have increased by +0.5-0.8 ºC since 2000, with +1.3-4.1 ºC rises projected by the end of the century. So concludes an article published in Environmental Research: Water, which combined multiple models to estimate how the temperature of rivers and lakes could change by the end of the century.

“Freshwater bodies are highly sensitive to atmospheric warming, and our results show they are already responding strongly to climate change,” said lead author Dr. Edward Jones, postdoctoral researcher at Utrecht ľ�ϸ���Ӱ��. “This warming has serious implications for aquatic ecosystems, human water uses and water quality more broadly.”

The study combines projections from seven river and four lake temperature models to assess how surface freshwater bodies are responding to climate change — and quantify how much warmer they could become by the end of the century.

“By combining multiple models, we provide a robust assessment of future warming and a better representation of associated uncertainties. Although projections differ in the magnitude of warming, they consistently underscore that strong climate change mitigation is essential for minimising water temperature rises.”

Increasing water temperatures have broad consequences for ecological systems, threatening species survival, disrupting food webs and increasing algal blooms, while also impacting human activities including power generation, water treatment and fisheries.

Publication

Edward R Jones et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Water 1 025002. DOI: 

This work is part of the ERC project B-WEX  (Balancing clean Water and Energy provision under changing climate and eXtremes).