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On Friday 21 November,  will defend his PhD dissertation ‘Evaluating the quality of intelligence analysis’. In his dissertation, Lathouwers develops a new framework for judging the accuracy of intelligence reports.

A new framework

Producing accurate intelligence assessments is no easy task. Yet decisionmakers and policymakers expect intelligence services, such as the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), to do just that. In fact, the degree to which they take intelligence reports into account in making decisions or policy depends in part on their perception of the accuracy of intelligence reports. A practical and in-depth framework for assessing the quality of intelligence analyses is therefore essential, but is generally lacking.

That is why Lathouwers has developed a new framework in his dissertation. Usually, accuracy is determined by solely looking at the conclusions in an intelligence report. Lathouwers adds two elements to the evaluation of intelligence analyses that pertain to the underlying factors that shape a conflict or security situation, the so-called drivers. These two elements are the selection and the accuracy of drivers. 

American intelligence analyses

Lathouwers tested the applicability of his framework using American intelligence analyses regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict in the period 1947–1974. His research shows that the American intelligence community identified nearly all relevant drivers and generally analysed those concerning the Arab states, and extra-regional states, accurately. Strikingly, however, the Americans had more difficulty assessing the drivers related to Israel correctly.

This research demonstrates that taking drivers into account provides a more useful and nuanced understanding of the accuracy of intelligence analyses. Lathouwers’ proposed framework consequently offers decisionmakers and intelligence services more opportunities to improve their mutual understanding and interaction, as well as the analysis, collection and management of intelligence. Moreover, it allows intelligence scholars to refine their judgment of intelligence performance.

Prior to the defence, Lathouwers will give a layman’s talk starting at 12:00.