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On Friday 20 June,  will defend his PhD dissertation ‘War From the Top: The Political Logic of the Dutch Operation in Uruzgan’. Dimitriu concludes that domestic political and personal motives play a significant role in decisions on military deployment – particularly in high-risk operations, internal divisions within the cabinet, election periods, and public statements by politicians prior to a government decision.

Decision-making on the Uruzgan mission

In his dissertation, Dimitriu focusses on the Dutch decision-making on the Uruzgan mission (2006-2010). Central questions include why the Netherlands participated in the mission, why it was decided to withdraw, and which policy and political considerations were decisive in this regard.
Dimitriu noted that besides policy motives – such as counterterrorism, loyalty to allies, access to international forums (like the G20), and regional stability –political motives also played a significant role. And although the strategic context has significantly changed since Uruzgan, he sees the lessons as relevant to current discussions on military operations.

Political motives surrounding Uruzgan

At the end of 2005, doubts arose about the safety and feasibility of the mission, Dimitriu explains. However, policymakers ruled out withdrawal because of the international expectations that had already been raised. To gain parliamentary support, military deployment was scaled down from 1,800 to 1,200 military personnel. And to increase political (and public) support, the communication emphasis was placed on reconstruction.

Political considerations also played a crucial role in 2010, in the decision-making process regarding the extension. The ministers involved reached a provisional compromise on continuing with 500 military personnel in the ‘Uruzgan Transition Operation’. But a combination of party political interests, electoral pressure, and premature, conflicting statements by politicians led to the fall of the Balkenende IV cabinet. This also brought the mission to an end.