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The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is facing increased salinity intrusion, impacting the livelihood of millions of people and making large parts of the delta unsuitable for agriculture. It is generally believed that climate change and related sea-level rise increase salinity in the VMD, and many studies exist that project future changes in salinity in the branches of the delta. However, already during the El Niño year of 2016 salinity levels were higher than projections for 2050. In this presentation I will show how different environmental factors and changes affect the tides, river discharge and salinity dynamics in the VMD and explain the discrepancy between previous projections and reality. I will first discuss the salinity dynamics in different branches of the VMD and relate it to the external forcing like river discharge, tides, wind-induced surges and geometry of the system. Second, I will discuss how climate change, subsidence and sediment starvation in the system already have changed the estuarine dynamics in the VMD and what might happen in the coming 30 years.