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This half-day tutorial will be held in physical format at the CCSS Living Room (Min. 4.16) with lunch and refreshments provided. The overarching topic of the CCSS Events of the academic year 2025/2026 is Tipping behavior in Natural and Societal Systems. 

Please bring your own laptop with Python or MATLAB installed if you wish to attend the Group work after the talk.

Programme

• 12:00-13:00 Lunch
• 13:00-14:00 Introductory talk
• 14:00-14:15 Break / Group formation
• 14:30-16:30 Group work
• 16:30-17:00 Wrap-up 
      

Tutorial Overview
Many complex systems can undergo abrupt, rapid and irreversible change following small changes to environmental conditions. Such tipping events can have undesirable impacts and therefore much research has been devoted to trying to anticipate upcoming tipping events or tipping points. In this talk, we will explore the theoretical basis for these so-called early warning signals, such as critical slowing down, which can be observed by increases in the lag-1 autocorrelation and variance. However, these indicators rely on a separation of timescales between slow forcing and fast system dynamics, and the ability to successfully extrapolate a signal, which can lead to false positives and false negatives. We will look at these in detail and introduce some of the latest approaches to address these limitations. 

Speaker Overview
is working at the Mathematics and Statistics department of the ľ¹Ï¸£ÀûÓ°ÊÓ of Exeter and currently a Research Fellow on the ClimTip project. Within this project he works on improving our understanding of tipping in rapidly forced systems. Specifically, this will focus on developing a metric to inform when a system is beyond a critical threshold, but crucially before it has tipped. Other applications will focus on the underlying dynamics between fast and slow interacting tipping elements.

To attend the talk and/or group work, please signup below before 15:00 on Tuesday October 14.